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Boca Juniors vs Lanus Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 00:30

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Lanus

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.2%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.1%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 54.1% 1.85 -8.1%

Draw 26.7% 30.8% 3.25 -7.9%

Away win 23.6% 22.0% 4.55 +4.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 39.2% 2.55 +28.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 19.0% 5.25 +30.4%

BTTS 49.2% 44.4% 2.25 +10.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 23.1% 21.1% 4.75 +5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boca Juniors1.5

Lanus0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.64

LANUS · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boca Juniors (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.9%

Lanus (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boca Juniors face Lanus in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boca Juniors a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Lanus 24%, so Boca Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Boca Juniors and 0.8 for Lanus (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boca Juniors are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.27 for Lanus. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Boca Juniors vs Lanus Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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