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Platense vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:00

Platense

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

UPCOMING

Deportivo Riestra

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.9%0-114.1%0-23.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.9%1-111.4%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.4%2-14.6%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.3%3-11.2%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 42.6% 2.35 -5.5%

Draw 35.3% 36.4% 2.75 -2.9%

Away win 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -7.8%

Over 2.5 34.1% 29.9% 3.35 +14.2%

Over 3.5 12.3% 13.3% 7.50 -4.7%

BTTS 41.7% 40.0% 2.50 +4.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

Away O1.5 14.0% 22.2% 4.50 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.7%

H 40% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.9%

#2 1–0 20.9%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Platense0.8

Deportivo Riestra0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PLATENSE · PPG 0.91

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA · PPG 0.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 1.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Platense (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 35.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.9%

Deportivo Riestra (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Platense face Deportivo Riestra in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Platense a 40% chance, the draw 35% and Deportivo Riestra 25%, so Platense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Platense and 0.5 for Deportivo Riestra (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Platense are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.36 for Deportivo Riestra. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.2%.

Platense vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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