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Argentinos JRS vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:00

Argentinos JRS

PPG 2.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Aldosivi

PPG 0.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-14.4%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.3%1-17.7%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.5%2-16.7%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.8%3-13.9%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-12.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 71.4% 1.40 -10.3%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 14.1% 12.5% 8.00 +7.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 25.1% 23.1% 4.33 +5.2%

BTTS 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 57.8% 1.73 -15.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 12.5% 8.00 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob42.6%

H 64% / xG 1.7-0.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.3%

#2 2–0 18.5%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 3–0 10.8%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentinos JRS1.7

Aldosivi0.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINOS JRS · PPG 2.43

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Argentinos JRS (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Aldosivi (A) 14.1%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentinos JRS face Aldosivi in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentinos JRS a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Aldosivi 14%, so Argentinos JRS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Argentinos JRS and 0.4 for Aldosivi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentinos JRS are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.18 for Aldosivi. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Argentinos JRS vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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