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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:45

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

UPCOMING

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-115.0%0-28.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.7%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.2%2-15.9%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 36.0% 2.78 -16.0%

Draw 29.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Away win 40.6% 36.8% 2.72 +10.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 35.1% 2.85 +21.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% 17.4% 5.75 +12.1%

BTTS 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

A 41% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 13.2%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0.9

Sarmiento Junin1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO · PPG 0.75

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 0.55

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.24, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -16.0%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Sarmiento Junin (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto face Sarmiento Junin in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Sarmiento Junin 41%, so Sarmiento Junin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.1 for Sarmiento Junin (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.55 for Sarmiento Junin. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.7%.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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