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Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:45

Deportivo Riestra

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Velez Sarsfield

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.5%0-118.4%0-26.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.1%1-112.1%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.3%2-14.0%2-21.5%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 36.8% 2.72 -17.0%

Draw 34.1% 35.7% 2.80 -4.5%

Away win 35.3% 34.5% 2.90 +2.4%

Over 2.5 34.2% 32.3% 3.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 14.2% 15.4% 6.50 -4.6%

BTTS 42.6% 42.0% 2.38 +1.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 19.6% 27.0% 3.70 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.6%

D 34% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.5%

#2 0–1 18.4%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 1–1✓ 12.1%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Riestra0.7

Velez Sarsfield0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA · PPG 1.27

VELEZ SARSFIELD · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 1.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Riestra (H) 30.5%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -17.0%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -4.5%

Velez Sarsfield (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Riestra face Velez Sarsfield in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Riestra a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Velez Sarsfield 35%, so Velez Sarsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.8 for Velez Sarsfield (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Riestra are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.64 for Velez Sarsfield. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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