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Independiente vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 22:15

Independiente

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Gimnasia M.

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.8%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.6%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 23.2% 18.2% 5.50 +16.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 46.5% 2.15 +15.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 25.0% 4.00 +26.0%

BTTS 52.7% 48.8% 2.05 +8.0%

Home O1.5 55.1% 54.6% 1.83 +0.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 18.2% 5.50 +17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente1.8

Gimnasia M.0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE · PPG 1.73

GIMNASIA M. · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Gimnasia M. (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente face Gimnasia M. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Gimnasia M. 23%, so Independiente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Independiente and 0.8 for Gimnasia M. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.82 for Gimnasia M.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Independiente vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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