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Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 22:00

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Newells Old Boys

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.4%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.4%1-18.9%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.1%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-14.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 59.5% 1.68 -3.7%

Draw 21.3% 29.4% 3.40 -16.6%

Away win 21.4% 18.2% 5.50 +10.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 44.4% 2.25 +21.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.1% 4.33 +36.8%

BTTS 49.0% 47.6% 2.10 +2.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 51.3% 1.95 +8.8%

Away O1.5 15.4% 21.1% 4.75 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.0%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 0–0✓ 7.1%

#5 3–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes L.P.2.0

Newells Old Boys0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.83

NEWELLS OLD BOYS · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes L.P. (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -3.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.6%

Newells Old Boys (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes L.P. face Newells Old Boys in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes L.P. a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Newells Old Boys 21%, so Estudiantes L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.6 for Newells Old Boys (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes L.P. are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.80 for Newells Old Boys. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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