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Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Rosario Central

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.0%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-110.9%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-15.8%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 22.0% 22.0% 4.55 +0.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 42.0% 2.38 +27.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 22.2% 4.50 +41.8%

BTTS 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 46.5% 2.15 +5.1%

Away O1.5 24.6% 23.1% 4.33 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central1.8

Gimnasia L.P.0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 2.00

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Gimnasia L.P. (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central face Gimnasia L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Gimnasia L.P. 22%, so Rosario Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rosario Central and 0.9 for Gimnasia L.P. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.46 for Gimnasia L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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