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Independ. Rivadavia vs Racing Club Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 00:30

Independ. Rivadavia

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Racing Club

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.3%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-111.1%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.7%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 22.7% 23.8% 4.20 -2.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 41.7% 2.40 +21.4%

Over 3.5 30.8% 22.2% 4.50 +38.6%

BTTS 52.9% 48.8% 2.05 +8.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 44.4% 2.25 +12.3%

Away O1.5 25.4% 25.0% 4.00 +1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independ. Rivadavia1.8

Racing Club0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA · PPG 2.08

RACING CLUB · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independ. Rivadavia (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Racing Club (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independ. Rivadavia face Racing Club in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independ. Rivadavia a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Racing Club 23%, so Independ. Rivadavia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Independ. Rivadavia and 0.9 for Racing Club (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independ. Rivadavia are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.23 for Racing Club. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Racing Club Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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