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Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 00:15

Instituto Cordoba

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.6%0-111.4%0-23.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.9%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.8%2-16.3%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.2%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 53.2% 1.88 -12.8%

Draw 31.9% 32.3% 3.10 -1.1%

Away win 21.7% 21.5% 4.65 +0.5%

Over 2.5 34.6% 36.4% 2.75 -4.9%

Over 3.5 14.4% 17.4% 5.75 -10.3%

BTTS 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 41.7% 2.40 -26.1%

Away O1.5 14.8% 20.0% 5.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.5%

#2 0–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Instituto Cordoba1.1

San Lorenzo0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INSTITUTO CORDOBA · PPG 1.90

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 1.63 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Instituto Cordoba (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -12.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.1%

San Lorenzo (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Instituto Cordoba face San Lorenzo in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Instituto Cordoba a 46% chance, the draw 32% and San Lorenzo 22%, so Instituto Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Instituto Cordoba and 0.6 for San Lorenzo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Instituto Cordoba are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.08 for San Lorenzo. This match finished 1-0.

Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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