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Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 22:00

Union Santa Fe

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.8%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-19.8%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.7%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.5%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Draw 22.6% 29.9% 3.35 -14.6%

Away win 24.4% 22.7% 4.40 +4.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 46.5% 2.15 +28.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 25.3% 3.95 +45.0%

BTTS 54.5% 51.3% 1.95 +6.3%

Home O1.5 57.2% 48.8% 2.05 +17.3%

Away O1.5 31.6% 26.0% 3.85 +21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Santa Fe2.0

Sarmiento Junin1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 1.60

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Santa Fe (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -3.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.6%

Sarmiento Junin (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Santa Fe face Sarmiento Junin in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Santa Fe a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Sarmiento Junin 24%, so Union Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Union Santa Fe and 1.0 for Sarmiento Junin (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Santa Fe are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.60 for Sarmiento Junin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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