NWSL Women
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 41 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
43.9%
1X2
18/41
46.3%
O/U 2.5
19/41
41.5%
BTTS
17/41
39.0%
Exact score
16/41
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
30
Settled
56.7%
Hit rate
17/30
1.65
Avg odds
-7.8%
ROI
-2.4u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=13 46.2% HIT · AVG 1.69 · -19.9% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.42 · -7.8% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.78 · +17.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -6.4% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-19.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-56.7%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
10
Bets
70%
Hit
+19.7%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
15
Bets
53%
Hit
-14.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 12 PICKS · 5 HIT · 7 MISS
19 JUL R. Louisville W vs Houston Dash W Over 2.5 +13% 1–1 MISS19 JUL Utah Royals W vs Orlando Pride W BTTS -13% 1–0 MISS19 JUL Boston Legacy W vs Washington S. W — NO PICK 1–2 —18 JUL Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign W Home -24% 3–2 HIT18 JUL Denver Summit W vs Portland T. W Over 2.5 +8% 2–1 HIT18 JUL Bay FC W vs N. Carolina W BTTS -17% 3–0 MISS18 JUL Chicago RS W vs Angel City W Away -12% 0–2 HIT15 JUL Orlando Pride W vs Boston Legacy W Home 0–1 MISS12 JUL San Diego W. W vs Angel City W BTTS -11% 0–2 MISS12 JUL Seattle Reign W vs Portland T. W BTTS -7% 2–0 MISS12 JUL Denver Summit W vs Houston Dash W BTTS +3% 2–2 HIT11 JUL Orlando Pride W vs KC Current W Over 2.5 +3% 3–0 HIT11 JUL Utah Royals W vs Gotham FC W — NO PICK 1–3 —11 JUL N. Carolina W vs Washington S. W BTTS +1% 0–2 MISS5 JUL San Diego W. W vs Gotham FC W — NO PICK 2–0 —