Today / USA - NWSL / Seattle Reign FC W vs Houston Dash W

Seattle Reign FC W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

Seattle Reign FC W

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Houston Dash W

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.6%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.7%1-112.0%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 54.1% 1.85 -14.2%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 29.3% 29.4% 3.40 -0.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.2% 61.7% 1.62 -12.2%

Home O1.5 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 30.8% 3.25 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.2%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0✓ 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle Reign FC W1.6

Houston Dash W1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE REIGN FC W · PPG 1.56

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Seattle Reign FC W (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Houston Dash W (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle Reign FC W face Houston Dash W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Reign FC W a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Houston Dash W 29%, so Seattle Reign FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Seattle Reign FC W and 1.0 for Houston Dash W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Reign FC W are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.80 for Houston Dash W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Seattle Reign FC W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - NWSL Predictions