Today / USA - NWSL / Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W

Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 22:00

Bay FC W

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Houston Dash W

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.3%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.8%1-112.7%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.6%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 54.1% 1.85 -27.5%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 36.0% 31.3% 3.20 +15.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 55.6% 1.80 -32.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.2% 2.62 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0✓ 10.8%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bay FC W1.4

Houston Dash W1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BAY FC W · PPG 0.89

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bay FC W (H) 39.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -27.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Houston Dash W (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bay FC W face Houston Dash W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bay FC W a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Houston Dash W 36%, so Bay FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bay FC W and 1.2 for Houston Dash W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bay FC W are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Houston Dash W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - NWSL Predictions