Today / USA - NWSL / NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Portland Thorns W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Portland Thorns W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 00:00

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Portland Thorns W

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-16.8%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.0%1-111.2%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.2%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-15.1%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 69.0% 1.45 -23.6%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Away win 23.0% 16.7% 6.00 +22.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 56.5% 1.77 -10.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Away O1.5 19.3% 23.8% 4.20 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 1–1✓ 11.2%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NJ/NY Gotham FC W1.6

Portland Thorns W0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NJ/NY GOTHAM FC W · PPG 2.18

PORTLAND THORNS W · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -23.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

Portland Thorns W (A) 23.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

NJ/NY Gotham FC W face Portland Thorns W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NJ/NY Gotham FC W a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Portland Thorns W 23%, so NJ/NY Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 0.7 for Portland Thorns W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NJ/NY Gotham FC W are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.18 for Portland Thorns W. This match finished 1-1.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Portland Thorns W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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