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Kansas City W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 22:30

Kansas City W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.1%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.6%1-19.9%1-26.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.7%3-16.2%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.6%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 50.0% 2.00 -6.0%

Draw 23.4% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

Away win 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -4.9%

Over 2.5 62.0% 61.7% 1.62 +0.4%

Over 3.5 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

BTTS 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

Home O1.5 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Away O1.5 38.6% 43.5% 2.30 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kansas City W1.9

North Carolina Courage W1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 2.40

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kansas City W (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -6.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.2%

North Carolina Courage W (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kansas City W face North Carolina Courage W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kansas City W a 47% chance, the draw 23% and North Carolina Courage W 30%, so Kansas City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kansas City W and 1.3 for North Carolina Courage W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kansas City W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.89 for North Carolina Courage W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Kansas City W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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