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Washington Spirit W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:00

Washington Spirit W

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Orlando Pride W

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.9%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-19.7%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.4%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-15.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 57.8% 1.73 -2.9%

Draw 22.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.9%

Away win 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Over 2.5 58.1% 55.6% 1.80 +4.6%

Over 3.5 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Washington Spirit W2.0

Orlando Pride W0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W · PPG 1.78

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Washington Spirit W (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -2.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.9%

Orlando Pride W (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Washington Spirit W face Orlando Pride W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Washington Spirit W a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Orlando Pride W 22%, so Washington Spirit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Washington Spirit W and 0.8 for Orlando Pride W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Washington Spirit W are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.70 for Orlando Pride W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Washington Spirit W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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