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San Diego Wave W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 02:00

San Diego Wave W

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Utah Royals W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-110.9%0-26.3%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.1%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-17.9%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.2%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 46.5% 2.15 -22.4%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Away win 36.6% 33.9% 2.95 +8.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 37.0% 2.70 -14.0%

BTTS 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Home O1.5 32.5% 51.8% 1.93 -37.3%

Away O1.5 35.6% 42.6% 2.35 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego Wave W1.2

Utah Royals W1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO WAVE W · PPG 1.30

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Diego Wave W (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.4%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Utah Royals W (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego Wave W face Utah Royals W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego Wave W a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Utah Royals W 37%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Diego Wave W and 1.2 for Utah Royals W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego Wave W are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.50 for Utah Royals W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 4-2.

San Diego Wave W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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