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North Carolina Courage W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 00:00

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Angel City W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.2%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 52.4% 1.91 -13.1%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 29.8% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

BTTS 60.6% 64.5% 1.55 -6.1%

Home O1.5 47.6% 56.5% 1.77 -15.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.8% 2.45 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 2–0✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Carolina Courage W1.6

Angel City W1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.45

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North Carolina Courage W (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -13.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Angel City W (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Carolina Courage W face Angel City W in USA - NWSL on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Carolina Courage W a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Angel City W 30%, so North Carolina Courage W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for North Carolina Courage W and 1.3 for Angel City W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Carolina Courage W are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.50 for Angel City W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-0.

North Carolina Courage W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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