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Chicago Red Stars W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Racing Louisville W

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.3%0-28.2%0-34.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.2%2-16.8%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 27.0% 3.70 -1.8%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 50.1% 57.1% 1.75 -12.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 44.4% 2.25 -28.9%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 50% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 0–2 8.2%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Red Stars W1.1

Racing Louisville W1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 1.11

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Red Stars W (H) 26.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Racing Louisville W (A) 50.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Red Stars W face Racing Louisville W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Red Stars W a 26% chance, the draw 24% and Racing Louisville W 50%, so Racing Louisville W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.6 for Racing Louisville W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Red Stars W are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.60 for Racing Louisville W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Chicago Red Stars W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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