Today / USA - NWSL / San Diego Wave W vs Racing Louisville W

San Diego Wave W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 02:00

San Diego Wave W

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Racing Louisville W

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.1%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-19.0%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.2%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 65.4% 1.53 -17.2%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 23.6% 20.0% 5.00 +10.8%

Over 2.5 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Over 3.5 39.3% 42.6% 2.35 -7.6%

BTTS 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Home O1.5 65.7% 67.6% 1.48 -2.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.1%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–2 4.7%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego Wave W2.2

Racing Louisville W1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO WAVE W · PPG 1.45

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Diego Wave W (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -17.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Racing Louisville W (A) 23.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego Wave W face Racing Louisville W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego Wave W a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Racing Louisville W 24%, so San Diego Wave W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for San Diego Wave W and 1.0 for Racing Louisville W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego Wave W are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.55 for Racing Louisville W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 3-2.

San Diego Wave W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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