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Denver Summit W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:55

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-13.6%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.6%1-18.0%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-18.8%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-16.4%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-15.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.8% 82.0% 1.22 -19.7%

Draw 19.7% 20.0% 5.00 -0.9%

Away win 14.5% 10.5% 9.50 +22.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Over 3.5 31.9% 45.5% 2.20 -29.8%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Away O1.5 16.4% 22.2% 4.50 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 66% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 3–0 10.9%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denver Summit W2.2

Chicago Red Stars W0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.33

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 0.27

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 1.33 vs 0.27 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Denver Summit W (H) 65.8%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -19.7%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -0.9%

Chicago Red Stars W (A) 14.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Denver Summit W face Chicago Red Stars W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denver Summit W a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Chicago Red Stars W 14%, so Denver Summit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Denver Summit W and 0.6 for Chicago Red Stars W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denver Summit W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.27 for Chicago Red Stars W. This match finished 6-1.

Denver Summit W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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