Today / USA - NWSL / Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W
Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL
Washington Spirit W
PPG 1.60 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME
Bay FC W
PPG 1.10 · AWAY
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-08.6% 0-16.4% 0-22.4% 0-30.6% 0-4+0.1% 1 1-014.7% 1-111.0% 1-24.1% 1-31.0% 1-4+0.2% 2 2-012.5% 2-19.4% 2-23.5% 2-30.9% 2-4+0.2% 3 3-07.1% 3-15.3% 3-22.0% 3-30.5% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-04.4% 4+-13.3% 4+-21.2% 4+-30.3% 4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 52.6% 67.6% 1.48 -22.1%
Draw 24.2% 24.7% 4.05 -1.2%
Away win 23.1% 19.0% 5.25 +12.8%
Over 2.5 50.5% 61.0% 1.64 -17.2%
Over 3.5 28.7% 36.6% 2.73 -13.0%
BTTS 50.0% 57.8% 1.73 -13.5%
Home O1.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%
Away O1.5 19.3% 27.3% 3.66 -17.6%
League track record ↗
Based on 96 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 48%
O2.5 50%
BTTS 51%
Score Hit 47%
ROI -6.6%
Bet Hit 54%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 1 25% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0 xG (home) 1.7 xG (away) 0.7 BTTS prob 50.0%
H 53% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–0✓ 14.7%
#2 1–1 11.0%
#3 2–0 12.5%
#4 0–0 8.6%
#5 2–1 9.4%
Form & verdict PPG
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage MODERATE_HOME xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge
Win probability 1X2
Washington Spirit W (H) 52.6%
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 17 matches · 2026 Washington Spirit W ▾ lower is better Bay FC W
Attack
3.7 Shots outside box
3.7 36.8% Shooting accuracy
32.2% 36.9% Goals per shot on target
21.9% 1.60 xG for 8·6 of 17
1.40 Defence
2.7 Shots on target faced▾
5.3 0.86 Goals conceded▾
1.35 0.84 xG against▾ 8·6 of 17
2.17 Control
81.7% Pass accuracy
77.5% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Washington Spirit W face Bay FC W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Washington Spirit W a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Bay FC W 23%, so Washington Spirit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Washington Spirit W and 0.7 for Bay FC W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Washington Spirit W are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.10 for Bay FC W. This match finished 1-0.
Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:30
