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Portland Thorns W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:45

Portland Thorns W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.6%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.5%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 44.4% 2.25 +19.0%

Draw 22.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.3%

Away win 24.5% 38.2% 2.62 -21.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 60.3% 66.7% 1.50 -9.6%

Home O1.5 54.9% 50.0% 2.00 +9.8%

Away O1.5 33.6% 44.4% 2.25 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0✓ 9.9%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Thorns W1.9

Denver Summit W1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND THORNS W · PPG 2.33

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Thorns W (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +19.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.3%

Denver Summit W (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Thorns W face Denver Summit W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Thorns W a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Denver Summit W 25%, so Portland Thorns W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Portland Thorns W and 1.1 for Denver Summit W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Thorns W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.20 for Denver Summit W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Portland Thorns W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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