NWSL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 96 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
47.9%
1X2
46/96
50.0%
O/U 2.5
48/96
51.0%
BTTS
49/96
46.9%
Exact score
45/96
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
13
Settled
53.8%
Hit rate
7/13
1.78
Avg odds
-6.6%
ROI
-0.9u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=8 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.73 · +28.6% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.79 · -100.0% ROI
BTTS · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.76 · -7.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.25 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-19.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
10
Bets
60%
Hit
+5.2%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS
1 SEPT Boston Legacy W vs Angel City W BTTS 2–5 HITAugust 2026 // 13 PICKS · 7 HIT · 6 MISS
30 AUG Denver Summit W vs Chicago Red Stars W Home -20% 6–1 HIT30 AUG Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W Home -22% 1–0 HIT30 AUG Seattle Reign FC W vs Houston Dash W BTTS -12% 1–0 MISS29 AUG NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Portland Thorns W Home -24% 1–1 MISS29 AUG San Diego Wave W vs Racing Louisville W Over 2.5 -4% 3–2 HIT29 AUG Kansas City W vs North Carolina Courage W BTTS -9% 3–2 HIT29 AUG Orlando Pride W vs Utah Royals W BTTS -5% 1–2 HIT27 AUG North Carolina Courage W vs Angel City W BTTS -6% 2–0 MISS24 AUG Angel City W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W — NO PICK 0–0 —23 AUG Portland Thorns W vs Denver Summit W Over 2.5 -2% 1–0 MISS23 AUG Chicago Red Stars W vs Racing Louisville W Over 2.5 -15% 3–2 HIT23 AUG Washington Spirit W vs Orlando Pride W Home -3% 0–1 MISS23 AUG Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W BTTS -9% 1–0 MISS22 AUG San Diego Wave W vs Utah Royals W BTTS -18% 4–2 HIT