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CF Montreal vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 20:30

CF Montreal

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.9%0-25.9%0-33.9%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.6%1-19.0%1-29.0%1-35.9%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-16.9%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

Draw 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Away win 43.7% 43.1% 2.32 +1.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Over 3.5 46.7% 39.2% 2.55 +19.1%

BTTS 62.3% 65.4% 1.53 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.3%

A 44% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal1.5

Chicago Fire2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 2.00

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Chicago Fire (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face Chicago Fire in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Chicago Fire 44%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CF Montreal and 2.0 for Chicago Fire (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Chicago Fire. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 0-2.

CF Montreal vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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