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Orlando City vs Atlanta Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Atlanta Utd

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.8%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.8%1-19.2%1-27.3%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.5%3-15.6%3-24.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.1%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 49.5% 2.02 -5.5%

Draw 23.8% 26.0% 3.85 -5.0%

Away win 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -3.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

BTTS 62.5% 69.0% 1.45 -9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City1.9

Atlanta Utd1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 1.50

ATLANTA UTD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -5.5%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.0%

Atlanta Utd (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City face Atlanta Utd in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Atlanta Utd 29%, so Orlando City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Orlando City and 1.6 for Atlanta Utd (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Atlanta Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Orlando City vs Atlanta Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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