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Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 23:00

Inter Miami

PPG 1.20 · HOME

6 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Philadelphia

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.2%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.7%1-16.1%1-24.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.5%2-18.5%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-06.0%3-17.8%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-110.6%4+-27.0%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 69.0% 1.45 -14.4%

Draw 20.7% 19.6% 5.10 +3.3%

Away win 20.3% 18.2% 5.50 +7.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 58.2% 54.6% 1.83 +6.5%

BTTS 62.5% 69.4% 1.44 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-4

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.5%

H 59% / xG 2.8-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami2.8

Philadelphia1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.2%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 1.20

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -14.4%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +3.3%

Philadelphia (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face Philadelphia in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Philadelphia 20%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Inter Miami and 1.3 for Philadelphia (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.50 for Philadelphia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 6-4.

Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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