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SJ Earthquakes vs Dallas Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 02:30

SJ Earthquakes

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dallas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.8%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.8%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.7%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 53.2% 1.88 +0.0%

Draw 24.7% 26.0% 3.85 -2.9%

Away win 22.1% 28.2% 3.55 -12.9%

Over 2.5 60.2% 67.6% 1.48 -10.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 45.5% 2.20 -18.4%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJ Earthquakes2.0

Dallas1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SJ EARTHQUAKES · PPG 2.17

DALLAS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

SJ Earthquakes (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +0.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.9%

Dallas (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJ Earthquakes face Dallas in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJ Earthquakes a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Dallas 22%, so SJ Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for SJ Earthquakes and 1.1 for Dallas (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJ Earthquakes are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.0%. This match finished 2-3.

SJ Earthquakes vs Dallas Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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