Today / USA - Major League Soccer / Charlotte vs New England

Charlotte vs New England Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:30

Charlotte

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

New England

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.6%0-23.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.2%1-110.1%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.0%3-15.6%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte1.8

New England1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.75

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=49.1%

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

New England (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face New England in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 49% chance, the draw 25% and New England 26%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Charlotte and 1.4 for New England (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.80 for New England. This match finished 1-0.

Charlotte vs New England Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - Major League Soccer Predictions