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Cincinnati vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:30

Cincinnati

PPG 1.67 · HOME

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Orlando City

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+35.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.6%0-20.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.3%1-12.4%1-22.3%1-31.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-02.4%2-14.6%2-24.4%2-32.7%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.1%3-15.8%3-25.5%3-33.5%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-115.0%4+-214.2%4+-38.9%4+-4+6.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 63.3% 1.58 -6.0%

Draw 20.0% 21.5% 4.65 -4.2%

Away win 20.5% 22.0% 4.55 -4.0%

Over 2.5 79.0% 80.0% 1.25 -1.3%

Over 3.5 81.9% 60.6% 1.65 +35.1%

BTTS 66.7% 76.9% 1.30 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 60% / xG 3.8-1.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 5.8%

#2 4–1 5.5%

#3 3–2 5.5%

#4 4–2 5.2%

#5 2–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cincinnati3.8

Orlando City1.9

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 81.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CINCINNATI · PPG 1.67

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=59.5%

Win probability 1X2

Cincinnati (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -6.0%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -4.2%

Orlando City (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cincinnati face Orlando City in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cincinnati a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Orlando City 21%, so Cincinnati are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Cincinnati and 1.9 for Orlando City (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cincinnati are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.57 for Orlando City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.1%. This match finished 6-2.

Cincinnati vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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