← Back to picks 
USA - Major League Soccer Saturday, May 23, 2026 18:45 
St. Louis City PPG 1.40 
Austin PPG 0.43
USA - Major League Soccer Saturday, May 23, 2026 18:45 St. Louis City PPG 1.403-0 MISS
Austin PPG 0.43Away· +10.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.57 -3.6%
Over 3.5 39.6% Odds: 2.40 -5.0%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.57 -6.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-2 ✘
5th 2-2 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
St. Louis City 1.87
Austin 1.32
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -3.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -3.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 76 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 61%
BTTS/No 68%
Score Hit 41%
ROI -11.7%
Bet Hit 50% (48 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.4%