Today / USA - Major League Soccer / St. Louis City vs Austin

St. Louis City vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:45

St. Louis City

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Austin

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.4%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.7%1-110.1%1-26.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.5%3-15.9%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 61.0% 1.64 -15.7%

Draw 23.9% 25.0% 4.00 -2.6%

Away win 24.7% 21.1% 4.75 +10.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 63.7% 1.57 -3.6%

Over 3.5 39.6% 41.7% 2.40 -5.0%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Louis City1.9

Austin1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 1.40

AUSTIN · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

63%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

St. Louis City (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -15.7%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.6%

Austin (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Louis City face Austin in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Austin 25%, so St. Louis City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for St. Louis City and 1.3 for Austin (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.43 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 3-0.

St. Louis City vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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