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DC United vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLD

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

CF Montreal

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.2%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.2%1-19.9%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.4%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 52.6% 1.90 -3.1%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Over 2.5 61.4% 55.6% 1.80 +10.5%

Over 3.5 41.2% 33.3% 3.00 +23.6%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United1.9

CF Montreal1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.17

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -3.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

CF Montreal (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face CF Montreal in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 51% chance, the draw 24% and CF Montreal 25%, so DC United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for DC United and 1.4 for CF Montreal (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.43 for CF Montreal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 4-4.

DC United vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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