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Inter Miami vs Portland Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 22:00

Inter Miami

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Portland

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 79% chance

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.6%0-21.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.5%1-14.7%1-24.4%1-32.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.6%2-16.7%2-26.3%2-34.0%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.4%3-16.4%3-26.0%3-33.8%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-19.3%4+-28.7%4+-35.5%4+-4+4.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 75.8% 1.32 -30.3%

Draw 22.4% 17.4% 5.75 +17.3%

Away win 24.8% 14.1% 7.10 +45.6%

Over 2.5 74.9% 80.0% 1.25 -6.4%

Over 3.5 69.8% 60.6% 1.65 +15.2%

BTTS 66.7% 69.4% 1.44 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 53% / xG 2.9-1.9 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.7%

#2 3–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami2.9

Portland1.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.9% · O3.5 PROB 69.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 0.75

PORTLAND · PPG 0.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

79%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -30.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +17.3%

Portland (A) 24.8%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +45.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face Portland in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Portland 25%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Inter Miami and 1.9 for Portland (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.57 for Portland. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Inter Miami vs Portland Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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