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Philadelphia vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia

PPG 0.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Columbus Crew

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.9%0-27.1%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.5%1-112.2%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.2%2-17.6%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 43.9% 2.28 -18.4%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 37.8% 35.1% 2.85 +7.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 28.2% 35.7% 2.80 -12.6%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia1.2

Columbus Crew1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.40

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.40), Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -18.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Columbus Crew (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia face Columbus Crew in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Columbus Crew 38%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Philadelphia and 1.4 for Columbus Crew (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 0.57 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Philadelphia vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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