Today / USA - Major League Soccer / New York RB vs New York City
New York RB vs New York City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer
Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 76 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
A 42% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.5%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK RB · PPG 1.67
NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.40
Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.40)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York RB face New York City in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 35% chance, the draw 24% and New York City 42%, so New York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for New York RB and 2.0 for New York City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.40 for New York City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 1-1.