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Minnesota Utd vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 20:30

Minnesota Utd

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Salt Lake

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.3%0-26.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.4%1-112.1%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-17.9%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 47.2% 2.12 -23.0%

Draw 26.4% 26.7% 3.75 -0.6%

Away win 37.3% 33.3% 3.00 +11.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 29.5% 39.2% 2.55 -14.9%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minnesota Utd1.3

Real Salt Lake1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MINNESOTA UTD · PPG 1.33

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Minnesota Utd (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -23.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.6%

Real Salt Lake (A) 37.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minnesota Utd face Real Salt Lake in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minnesota Utd a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Real Salt Lake 37%, so Real Salt Lake are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Minnesota Utd and 1.4 for Real Salt Lake (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minnesota Utd are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Real Salt Lake. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Minnesota Utd vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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