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Charlotte vs Toronto Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:30

Charlotte

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Toronto

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.8%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.7%1-18.3%1-26.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.6%3-16.7%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.1%4+-24.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

Draw 23.9% 26.3% 3.80 -5.5%

Away win 24.4% 23.0% 4.35 +3.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 60.6% 1.65 +5.4%

Over 3.5 49.6% 38.2% 2.62 +29.9%

BTTS 62.5% 62.5% 1.60 0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1✓ 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte2.2

Toronto1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.57

TORONTO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.5%

Toronto (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face Toronto in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Toronto 24%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Charlotte and 1.5 for Toronto (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Toronto. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Charlotte vs Toronto Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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