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Columbus Crew vs Atlanta Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:00

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atlanta Utd

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.8%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.1%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 66.2% 1.51 -25.9%

Draw 26.1% 23.3% 4.30 +7.3%

Away win 24.8% 17.2% 5.80 +26.3%

Over 2.5 51.8% 63.7% 1.57 -18.7%

Over 3.5 26.1% 41.7% 2.40 -22.4%

BTTS 52.4% 61.7% 1.62 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew1.5

Atlanta Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.33

ATLANTA UTD · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -25.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +7.3%

Atlanta Utd (A) 24.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face Atlanta Utd in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Atlanta Utd 25%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Columbus Crew and 1.0 for Atlanta Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Atlanta Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Columbus Crew vs Atlanta Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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