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DC United vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St. Louis City

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.5%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.4%1-112.4%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 41.7% 2.40 +13.5%

Draw 27.2% 28.6% 3.50 -2.9%

Away win 25.6% 36.8% 2.72 -18.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Over 3.5 25.3% 33.3% 3.00 -14.5%

BTTS 52.4% 61.7% 1.62 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.4%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United1.5

St. Louis City1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.20

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +13.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.9%

St. Louis City (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face St. Louis City in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 47% chance, the draw 27% and St. Louis City 26%, so DC United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for DC United and 1.1 for St. Louis City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.71 for St. Louis City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-1.

DC United vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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