Leagues / SWEDEN / Ettan - Norra
Ettan - Norra
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 56 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
50.0%
1X2
28/56
64.3%
O/U 2.5
36/56
57.1%
BTTS
32/56
37.5%
Exact score
21/56
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
51
Settled
62.7%
Hit rate
32/51
1.57
Avg odds
-1.2%
ROI
-0.6u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=20 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.50 · -10.9% ROI
BTTS · N=10 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.49 · -10.1% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=9 77.8% HIT · AVG 1.72 · +26.9% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.40 · -38.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.99 · +36.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.71 · +21.3% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
9
Bets
89%
Hit
+54.2%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+54.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
67%
Hit
-1.8%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
34
Bets
53%
Hit
-19.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
June 2026 // 14 PICKS · 9 HIT · 5 MISS
28 JUN Umea vs Jarfalla Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT27 JUN Stockholm Inter vs Enkoping Over 2.5 -2% 2–0 MISS27 JUN Gefle vs Stocksund AO1.5 2–1 MISS27 JUN Arlanda vs Karlstad — NO PICK 1–0 —26 JUN Sollentuna vs AFC Eskilstuna BTTS -19% 1–4 HIT26 JUN FBK Karlstad vs Hammarby Talang BTTS -18% 0–7 MISS26 JUN Assyriska vs Vasalund BTTS -1% 3–1 HIT24 JUN Karlberg vs Pitea Over 2.5 -9% 3–1 HIT21 JUN Pitea vs AFC Eskilstuna AO1.5 2–2 HIT21 JUN Enkoping vs Umea Over 2.5 -1% 3–1 HIT21 JUN Assyriska vs Karlstad AO1.5 2–2 HIT18 JUN Vasalund vs Karlberg Over 2.5 -6% 0–4 HIT18 JUN Gefle vs Stockholm Inter AO1.5 0–2 HIT18 JUN Hammarby Talang vs Jarfalla HO1.5 1–1 MISS18 JUN Arlanda vs Stocksund Over 2.5 -12% 1–0 MISS