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AFC Eskilstuna vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sollentuna

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.5%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-112.9%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.7%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

Draw 27.4% 27.0% 3.70 +0.8%

Away win 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 52.1% 64.5% 1.55 -19.2%

Home O1.5 38.0% 59.9% 1.67 -36.5%

Away O1.5 25.7% 39.2% 2.55 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Eskilstuna1.3

Sollentuna0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.56

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AFC Eskilstuna (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -13.8%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.8%

Sollentuna (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Eskilstuna face Sollentuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sollentuna 25%, so AFC Eskilstuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.9 for Sollentuna (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.22 for Sollentuna. This match finished 2-1.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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