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FBK Karlstad vs Piteå Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Piteå

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.8%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.4%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 65.8% 1.52 -29.5%

Draw 24.3% 25.6% 3.90 -3.1%

Away win 29.3% 20.4% 4.90 +26.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 63.3% 1.58 -15.5%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.3% 2.48 -21.9%

BTTS 54.5% 59.5% 1.68 -8.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 66.7% 1.50 -26.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBK Karlstad1.7

Piteå1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.56

PITEÅ · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FBK Karlstad (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -29.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.1%

Piteå (A) 29.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBK Karlstad face Piteå in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBK Karlstad a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Piteå 29%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FBK Karlstad and 1.1 for Piteå (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBK Karlstad are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Piteå. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 4-3.

FBK Karlstad vs Piteå Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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