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Gefle IF vs IF Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Gefle IF

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

IF Karlstad

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-112.1%0-211.0%0-36.7%0-4+4.6%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.1%2 2-02.7%2-14.8%2-24.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.4%3-21.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 33.3% 3.00 -18.8%

Draw 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -17.6%

Away win 55.0% 48.8% 2.05 +12.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 32.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

BTTS 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.3% 2.61 -19.4%

Away O1.5 49.3% 50.5% 1.98 -2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.3%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 0–2 11.0%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gefle IF0.9

IF Karlstad1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GEFLE IF · PPG 1.62

IF KARLSTAD · PPG 1.89

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.92 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gefle IF (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.8%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.6%

IF Karlstad (A) 55.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gefle IF face IF Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gefle IF a 23% chance, the draw 22% and IF Karlstad 55%, so IF Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gefle IF and 1.8 for IF Karlstad (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gefle IF are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.89 for IF Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Gefle IF vs IF Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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