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Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Arlanda

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.9%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.2%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-17.9%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 45.5% 2.20 -20.8%

Draw 27.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.5%

Away win 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 59.9% 1.67 -16.3%

Over 3.5 28.3% 38.2% 2.62 -15.5%

BTTS 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Home O1.5 32.4% 52.4% 1.91 -38.1%

Away O1.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arlanda1.2

FBK Karlstad1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ARLANDA · PPG 1.78

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arlanda (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -20.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.5%

FBK Karlstad (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arlanda face FBK Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arlanda a 36% chance, the draw 27% and FBK Karlstad 37%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arlanda and 1.1 for FBK Karlstad (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arlanda are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.75 for FBK Karlstad. This match finished 5-1.

Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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