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Assyriska FF vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:30

Assyriska FF

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

UPCOMING

Stocksund

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.7%0-21.8%0-31.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-02.2%1-14.6%1-24.9%1-33.5%1-4+3.0%2 2-02.9%2-16.2%2-26.6%2-34.7%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.6%3-15.6%3-25.9%3-34.2%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-17.3%4+-27.7%4+-35.5%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 60.6% 1.65 -14.2%

Draw 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -11.9%

Away win 28.9% 25.3% 3.95 +8.5%

Over 2.5 73.9% 73.5% 1.36 +0.5%

Over 3.5 56.6% 51.8% 1.93 +9.2%

BTTS 69.7% 72.5% 1.38 -3.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Away O1.5 58.6% 44.4% 2.25 +31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.7%

H 52% / xG 2.7-2.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.6%

#5 1–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Assyriska FF2.7

Stocksund2.1

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASSYRISKA FF · PPG 1.22

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Assyriska FF (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -14.2%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.9%

Stocksund (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Assyriska FF face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Assyriska FF a 52% chance, the draw 19% and Stocksund 29%, so Assyriska FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Assyriska FF and 2.1 for Stocksund (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Assyriska FF are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.44 for Stocksund. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +90.5%.

Assyriska FF vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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