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Karlberg vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Karlberg

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.4%0-25.5%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.9%1-110.1%1-28.6%1-34.9%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.9%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 45.5% 2.20 -22.6%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 40.4% 38.2% 2.62 +5.9%

Over 2.5 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Over 3.5 36.9% 47.6% 2.10 -22.5%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 46.5% 57.8% 1.73 -19.6%

Away O1.5 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.3%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlberg1.6

AFC Eskilstuna1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLBERG · PPG 1.38

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karlberg (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -22.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

AFC Eskilstuna (A) 40.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlberg face AFC Eskilstuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlberg a 35% chance, the draw 24% and AFC Eskilstuna 40%, so AFC Eskilstuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Karlberg and 1.7 for AFC Eskilstuna (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlberg are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for AFC Eskilstuna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Karlberg vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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