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Umeå FC vs Enköping Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Umeå FC

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Enköping

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.1%0-26.7%0-33.7%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.7%1-111.0%1-29.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.5%2-17.5%2-26.2%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 46.5% 2.15 -31.6%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 43.7% 38.2% 2.62 +14.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

BTTS 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 54.6% 1.83 -30.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.5%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umeå FC1.4

Enköping1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEÅ FC · PPG 1.00

ENKÖPING · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Umeå FC (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -31.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Enköping (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umeå FC face Enköping in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umeå FC a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Enköping 44%, so Enköping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Umeå FC and 1.7 for Enköping (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umeå FC are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Enköping. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Umeå FC vs Enköping Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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