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Sollentuna vs IF Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Sollentuna

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

IF Karlstad

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-118.0%0-214.1%0-37.4%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.9%1-110.7%1-28.4%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.0%2-13.2%2-22.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.5% 27.4% 3.65 -26.1%

Draw 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -8.3%

Away win 59.5% 54.1% 1.85 +10.1%

Over 2.5 49.5% 54.1% 1.85 -8.4%

Over 3.5 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

BTTS 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 52.6% 1.90 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob47.6%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.0%

#2 0–2 14.1%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sollentuna0.6

IF Karlstad1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 0.75

IF KARLSTAD · PPG 2.12

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.97 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sollentuna (H) 15.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -26.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.3%

IF Karlstad (A) 59.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sollentuna face IF Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sollentuna a 16% chance, the draw 25% and IF Karlstad 60%, so IF Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sollentuna and 1.6 for IF Karlstad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sollentuna are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.12 for IF Karlstad. This match finished 2-1.

Sollentuna vs IF Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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