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Vasalund vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Vasalund

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stocksund

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.2%0-23.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.4%1-18.1%1-27.5%1-34.6%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.8%3-15.1%3-24.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.9%4+-23.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 59.9% 1.67 -27.2%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 34.6% 26.3% 3.80 +31.5%

Over 2.5 65.0% 71.4% 1.40 -9.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.4% 1.91 -16.9%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 54.9% 69.4% 1.44 -20.9%

Away O1.5 55.2% 42.0% 2.38 +31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasalund1.9

Stocksund1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VASALUND · PPG 1.62

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vasalund (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -27.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Stocksund (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasalund face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasalund a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Stocksund 35%, so Vasalund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vasalund and 1.8 for Stocksund (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasalund are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.50 for Stocksund. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +68.5%. This match finished 4-3.

Vasalund vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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